March 8, 2025
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Magomed Ankalaev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 398 | 1 402 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Magomed Ankalaev's 4-fight experience advantage (15 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Magomed Ankalaev for the expected result. Had Alex Pereira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Magomed Ankalaev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 332 | 1 288 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +91 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Magomed Ankalaev captured the UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Magomed Ankalaev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 672 | 1 725 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Magomed Ankalaev earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Magomed Ankalaev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 76 | 94 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 137 | 180 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 97 | 127 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 652 | 1 644 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Magomed Ankalaev controlled the striking exchanges with 127 vs 97 total strikes, 94 vs 76 significant strikes. Magomed Ankalaev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Magomed Ankalaev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 5:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 279 | 1 468 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Magomed Ankalaev edged out Alex Pereira on the ground with 5:42 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Magomed Ankalaev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 402 | 1 445 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +45 |
Magomed Ankalaev demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Magomed Ankalaev capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Pereira's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Magomed Ankalaev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 251 | 1 371 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +21 |
Magomed Ankalaev extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Pereira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Magomed Ankalaev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 384 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.