January 24, 2020
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Perez | Jordan Espinosa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 145 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Alex Perez's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Perez for the expected result. Had Jordan Espinosa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Jordan Espinosa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 079 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Jordan Espinosa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:33 | 2:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 224 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -22 |
Alex Perez earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:33, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Jordan Espinosa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 175 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Alex Perez slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Alex Perez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Jordan Espinosa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:33 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 222 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Alex Perez controlled Jordan Espinosa on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:33 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Jordan Espinosa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 301 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 149 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Alex Perez demonstrated standard activity with 301 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Alex Perez capitalized on this activity level, while Jordan Espinosa's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Jordan Espinosa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 099 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Alex Perez extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jordan Espinosa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Jordan Espinosa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 079 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.