April 26, 2024
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Perez | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 150 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (11 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 069 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:16 | 2:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 298 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -41 |
Alex Perez gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 71 | 55 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 22 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 266 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Alex Perez controlled the striking exchanges with 28 vs 22 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Alex Perez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 167 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 56 | 378 |
| Activity ELO | 1 245 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | +106 | -21 |
Alex Perez demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 56 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Alex Perez capitalized on this activity level, while Matheus Nicolau's 378-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 096 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -24 |
Alex Perez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matheus Nicolau is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Perez | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 067 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.