September 15, 2017
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Reyes | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 981 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Mike Perry's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mike Perry for the expected result. Had Alex Reyes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Reyes | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Reyes | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:19 | 1:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 986 | 1 319 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +32 |
Mike Perry earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:19, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alex Reyes | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 18 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 974 | 1 354 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Mike Perry controlled the striking exchanges with 11 vs 6 significant strikes, 61.1% vs 46.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Mike Perry capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Reyes | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:18 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 958 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Alex Reyes | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 989 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +23 |
Mike Perry demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Mike Perry capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Reyes's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Reyes | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Mike Perry extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Reyes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Reyes | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

