February 18, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Ricci | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 959 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Paul Felder's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paul Felder for the expected result. Had Alex Ricci pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Ricci | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 961 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Ricci | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:44 | 4:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 940 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +39 |
Paul Felder earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:44, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alex Ricci | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 59 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 930 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Paul Felder controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Paul Felder capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Ricci | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 887 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Alex Ricci | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 177 | 149 |
| Activity ELO | 968 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +23 |
Paul Felder demonstrated solid activity levels with 149 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Paul Felder capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Ricci's 177-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Ricci | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 962 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +18 |
Paul Felder started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Ricci is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Ricci | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 961 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

