November 18, 2011
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Soto | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 974 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Michael McDonald's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Michael McDonald for the expected result. Had Alex Soto pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Soto | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Soto | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:56 | 0:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 964 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +95 |
Michael McDonald secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:56 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Alex Soto | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 882 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -118 | +118 |
Michael McDonald dominated the striking exchanges with 12 vs 6 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 75.0% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Michael McDonald capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Soto | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 963 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Michael McDonald landed 2 knockdowns followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alex Soto | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +28 |
Michael McDonald demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Michael McDonald capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Soto's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Soto | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +24 |
Michael McDonald extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Soto is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Soto | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.