January 13, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex White | James Krause |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 000 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
James Krause's 2-fight experience advantage (9 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding James Krause for the expected result. Had Alex White pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex White | James Krause |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex White | James Krause |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 061 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
James Krause earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alex White | James Krause |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 56 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 127 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 97 | 56 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 062 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Alex White controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (97 vs 56 total strikes), significant strike advantage (56 vs 35). However, since Alex White lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. James Krause's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex White | James Krause |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:53 | 10:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 15 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 923 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
James Krause controlled Alex White on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 10:09 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alex White | James Krause |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 128 | 192 |
| Activity ELO | 990 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
James Krause demonstrated standard activity with 192 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, James Krause capitalized on this activity level, while Alex White's 128-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex White | James Krause |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +24 |
James Krause extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex White is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex White | James Krause |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.