July 15, 2014
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex White | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 024 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Lucas Martins's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lucas Martins for the expected result. Had Alex White pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex White | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 998 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex White | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:08 | 2:08 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 048 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +75 |
Lucas Martins gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alex White | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 159 | 140 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 42 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 988 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -91 | +91 |
Lucas Martins controlled the striking exchanges with 53 vs 42 significant strikes, 37.9% vs 26.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Lucas Martins capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex White | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 989 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Alex White | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 88 | 315 |
| Activity ELO | 1 002 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Lucas Martins demonstrated standard activity with 315 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Lucas Martins capitalized on this activity level, while Alex White's 88-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex White | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Lucas Martins extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex White is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex White | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 998 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

