September 20, 2019
Women's Strawweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Carla Esparza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 047 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Carla Esparza's 4-fight experience advantage (10 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Carla Esparza for the expected result. Had Alexa Grasso pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Carla Esparza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Carla Esparza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 021 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Carla Esparza earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Carla Esparza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 103 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 103 | 115 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 036 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Carla Esparza slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 55.0% vs 43.7% accuracy. Carla Esparza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Carla Esparza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:18 | 7:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 972 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Carla Esparza controlled Alexa Grasso on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 7:11 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Carla Esparza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 015 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +38 |
Carla Esparza demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Carla Esparza capitalized on this activity level, while Alexa Grasso's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Carla Esparza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 011 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Carla Esparza extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexa Grasso is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Carla Esparza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.