February 3, 2017
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Felice Herrig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 033 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Felice Herrig's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Felice Herrig for the expected result. Had Alexa Grasso pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Felice Herrig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Felice Herrig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 007 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Felice Herrig earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Felice Herrig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 80 | 60 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 206 | 246 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 88 | 66 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Alexa Grasso controlled the striking through superior volume (88 vs 66 total strikes), significant strike advantage (80 vs 60), superior accuracy (38.8% vs 24.4%). However, since Alexa Grasso lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Felice Herrig's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Felice Herrig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:14 | 0:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 999 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
Felice Herrig controlled Alexa Grasso on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 0:37 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Felice Herrig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 000 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Felice Herrig demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Felice Herrig capitalized on this activity level, while Alexa Grasso's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Felice Herrig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 002 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Felice Herrig extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexa Grasso is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Felice Herrig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.