March 3, 2023
UFC Women's Flyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 224 | 1 276 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -45 |
Alexa Grasso overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Valentina Shevchenko.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 194 | 1 342 |
| ELO Change | +106 | -35 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Alexa Grasso captured the UFC Women's Flyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 4:34 | 4:34 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 320 | 1 418 |
| ELO Change | +104 | -69 |
Alexa Grasso earned a finish with a Submission in round 4 at 4:34, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Valentina Shevchenko was submitted.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 87 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 181 | 145 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 182 | 167 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 183 | 1 410 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Valentina Shevchenko controlled the striking through superior volume (167 vs 182 total strikes), significant strike advantage (87 vs 59), superior accuracy (60.0% vs 32.6%). However, since Valentina Shevchenko lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alexa Grasso's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:22 | 5:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 216 | 1 481 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -77 |
Alexa Grasso edged out Valentina Shevchenko on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:22 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 267 |
| Activity ELO | 1 189 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -31 |
Alexa Grasso demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alexa Grasso capitalized on this activity level, while Valentina Shevchenko's 267-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 177 | 1 309 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -33 |
Alexa Grasso continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Valentina Shevchenko's now at 0.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 113 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.