September 13, 2024
UFC Women's Flyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 201 | 1 299 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Valentina Shevchenko's 4-fight experience advantage (17 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Valentina Shevchenko for the expected result. Had Alexa Grasso pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 189 | 1 374 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +40 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Valentina Shevchenko captured the UFC Women's Flyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 292 | 1 446 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Valentina Shevchenko earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 100 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 153 | 193 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 178 | 1 415 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Valentina Shevchenko controlled the striking exchanges with 193 vs 153 total strikes, 45 vs 18 significant strikes, 56.3% vs 18.0% accuracy. Valentina Shevchenko capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 8 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:49 | 16:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 195 | 1 502 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Valentina Shevchenko dominated Alexa Grasso on the ground with 8 vs 1 takedowns, 16:04 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 364 | 364 |
| Activity ELO | 1 179 | 1 294 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Valentina Shevchenko demonstrated standard activity with 364 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Valentina Shevchenko capitalized on this activity level, while Alexa Grasso's 364-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 171 | 1 317 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +16 |
Valentina Shevchenko started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexa Grasso is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 098 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.