October 14, 2022
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Viviane Araujo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 167 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Alexa Grasso's 2-fight experience advantage (10 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexa Grasso for the expected result. Had Viviane Araujo pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Viviane Araujo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 088 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Viviane Araujo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 216 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Alexa Grasso earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Viviane Araujo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 153 | 126 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 311 | 264 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 193 | 148 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 145 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Alexa Grasso controlled the striking exchanges with 193 vs 148 total strikes, 153 vs 126 significant strikes. Alexa Grasso capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Viviane Araujo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 3:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 139 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Alexa Grasso did not secure a significant ground advantage against Viviane Araujo on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Viviane Araujo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 126 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -24 |
Alexa Grasso demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alexa Grasso capitalized on this activity level, while Viviane Araujo's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Viviane Araujo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 114 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -21 |
Alexa Grasso extended her 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Viviane Araujo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexa Grasso | Viviane Araujo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 086 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.