January 23, 2015
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 217 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Anthony Johnson's 3-fight experience advantage (14 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Johnson for the expected result. Had Alexander Gustafsson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 120 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:15 | 2:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 441 | 1 570 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +98 |
Anthony Johnson earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 47 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 379 | 1 630 |
| ELO Change | -100 | +100 |
Anthony Johnson controlled the striking exchanges with 38 vs 10 total strikes, 30 vs 10 significant strikes, 63.8% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Anthony Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 1 343 | 1 324 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Anthony Johnson controlled Alexander Gustafsson on the ground with 0:32 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 322 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 238 | 1 281 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +27 |
Anthony Johnson demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Gustafsson's 322-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 178 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +32 |
Anthony Johnson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Gustafsson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 108 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.