Alexander Gustafsson vs Anthony Smith

May 31, 2019

Light Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1257
(-38)
Alexander Gustafsson
Winner: Anthony Smith
Submission
Round 4 • 2:38

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Alexander Gustafsson-38
Anthony Smith+45
1289
(+45)
Anthony Smith

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: -33Anthony Smith: +41

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonAnthony Smith
Total UFC Fights1612
Experience Gap4-4
Experience ELO1 2021 264
ELO Change-33+41
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What Happened

Anthony Smith overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Alexander Gustafsson.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: -23Anthony Smith: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonAnthony Smith
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1111 117
ELO Change-23+23
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: -43Anthony Smith: +64

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonAnthony Smith
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round44
Time of Finish2:382:38
Win Type ELO1 4811 580
ELO Change-43+64
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What Happened

Anthony Smith earned a finish with a Submission in round 4 at 2:38, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Alexander Gustafsson was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: -24Anthony Smith: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonAnthony Smith
Significant Strikes Landed7249
Significant Strikes Attempted151104
Total Strikes Landed7351
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 4681 470
ELO Change-24+24
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What Happened

Alexander Gustafsson controlled the striking through superior volume (73 vs 51 total strikes), significant strike advantage (72 vs 49). However, since Alexander Gustafsson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Anthony Smith's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: -115Anthony Smith: +115

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonAnthony Smith
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted31
Ground Control Time0:391:24
Ground Strikes Landed25
Ground ELO1 3051 269
ELO Change-115+115
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What Happened

Anthony Smith controlled Alexander Gustafsson on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:24 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: -18Anthony Smith: +44

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonAnthony Smith
Days Since Last Fight15491
Activity ELO1 2351 352
ELO Change-18+44
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What Happened

Anthony Smith demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Smith capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Gustafsson's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: -25Anthony Smith: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonAnthony Smith
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 1661 152
ELO Change-25+27
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What Happened

Anthony Smith started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Gustafsson is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: -23Anthony Smith: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonAnthony Smith
Weight ClassLight HeavyweightLight Heavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0901 106
ELO Change-23+23
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.