May 31, 2019
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 202 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +41 |
Anthony Smith overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Alexander Gustafsson.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 111 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 2:38 | 2:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 481 | 1 580 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +64 |
Anthony Smith earned a finish with a Submission in round 4 at 2:38, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Alexander Gustafsson was submitted.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 72 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 151 | 104 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 468 | 1 470 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Alexander Gustafsson controlled the striking through superior volume (73 vs 51 total strikes), significant strike advantage (72 vs 49). However, since Alexander Gustafsson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Anthony Smith's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:39 | 1:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 305 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -115 | +115 |
Anthony Smith controlled Alexander Gustafsson on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:24 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 91 |
| Activity ELO | 1 235 | 1 352 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +44 |
Anthony Smith demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Smith capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Gustafsson's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 166 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Anthony Smith started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Gustafsson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 090 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

