July 24, 2020
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 170 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (17 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 092 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:30 | 2:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 443 | 1 581 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +66 |
Fabricio Werdum earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 19 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 437 | 1 316 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Alexander Gustafsson controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (11 vs 4), superior accuracy (57.9% vs 80.0%). However, since Alexander Gustafsson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Fabricio Werdum's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:12 | 1:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 249 | 1 374 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Fabricio Werdum controlled Alexander Gustafsson on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:06 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 420 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 216 | 1 324 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +57 |
Fabricio Werdum demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Fabricio Werdum capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Gustafsson's 420-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 146 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Fabricio Werdum started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Gustafsson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 069 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.