February 25, 2011
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | James Te Huna |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 074 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Alexander Gustafsson's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexander Gustafsson for the expected result. Had James Te Huna pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | James Te Huna |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | James Te Huna |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:27 | 4:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 198 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -34 |
Alexander Gustafsson earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:27, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | James Te Huna |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 117 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
James Te Huna controlled the striking through superior volume (34 vs 17 total strikes), superior accuracy (100.0% vs 44.4%). However, since James Te Huna lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alexander Gustafsson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | James Te Huna |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:57 | 2:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 184 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Alexander Gustafsson controlled James Te Huna on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:57 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | James Te Huna |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 371 |
| Activity ELO | 1 069 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -21 |
Alexander Gustafsson demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alexander Gustafsson capitalized on this activity level, while James Te Huna's 371-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | James Te Huna |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 052 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Alexander Gustafsson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. James Te Huna is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | James Te Huna |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

