Alexander Gustafsson vs Jimi Manuwa

March 7, 2014

Light Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1297
(+24)
Alexander Gustafsson
Winner: Alexander Gustafsson
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 1:18

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Alexander Gustafsson+24
Jimi Manuwa-21
1100
(-21)
Jimi Manuwa

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: +24Jimi Manuwa: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonJimi Manuwa
Total UFC Fights104
Experience Gap6-6
Experience ELO1 2531 123
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

Alexander Gustafsson's 6-fight experience advantage (10 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexander Gustafsson for the expected result. Had Jimi Manuwa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: +17Jimi Manuwa: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonJimi Manuwa
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1431 047
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: +30Jimi Manuwa: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonJimi Manuwa
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:181:18
Win Type ELO1 4841 171
ELO Change+30-15
💡

What Happened

Alexander Gustafsson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: +42Jimi Manuwa: -42

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonJimi Manuwa
Significant Strikes Landed2113
Significant Strikes Attempted4323
Total Strikes Landed4015
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 4791 154
ELO Change+42-42
💡

What Happened

Alexander Gustafsson controlled the striking exchanges with 40 vs 15 total strikes, 21 vs 13 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Alexander Gustafsson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: +23Jimi Manuwa: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonJimi Manuwa
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted20
Ground Control Time3:230:00
Ground Strikes Landed40
Ground ELO1 4221 109
ELO Change+23-23
💡

What Happened

Alexander Gustafsson landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: +23Jimi Manuwa: -13

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonJimi Manuwa
Days Since Last Fight169134
Activity ELO1 2591 086
ELO Change+23-13
💡

What Happened

Alexander Gustafsson demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alexander Gustafsson capitalized on this activity level, while Jimi Manuwa's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: +16Jimi Manuwa: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonJimi Manuwa
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 2031 063
ELO Change+16-15
💡

What Happened

Alexander Gustafsson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jimi Manuwa is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Gustafsson: +18Jimi Manuwa: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander GustafssonJimi Manuwa
Weight ClassLight HeavyweightLight Heavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1301 046
ELO Change+18-18
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.