March 7, 2014
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jimi Manuwa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 253 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Alexander Gustafsson's 6-fight experience advantage (10 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexander Gustafsson for the expected result. Had Jimi Manuwa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jimi Manuwa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 143 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jimi Manuwa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:18 | 1:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 484 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -15 |
Alexander Gustafsson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jimi Manuwa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 43 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 479 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Alexander Gustafsson controlled the striking exchanges with 40 vs 15 total strikes, 21 vs 13 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Alexander Gustafsson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jimi Manuwa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:23 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 422 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Alexander Gustafsson landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jimi Manuwa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 259 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -13 |
Alexander Gustafsson demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alexander Gustafsson capitalized on this activity level, while Jimi Manuwa's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jimi Manuwa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 203 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -15 |
Alexander Gustafsson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jimi Manuwa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jimi Manuwa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 130 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

