December 28, 2018
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 235 | 1 466 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Jon Jones's 4-fight experience advantage (19 vs 15 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jon Jones for the expected result. Had Alexander Gustafsson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 134 | 1 485 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +16 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Jon Jones captured the UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:02 | 2:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 524 | 1 777 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +42 |
Jon Jones gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 83 | 102 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 492 | 1 793 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Jon Jones controlled the striking exchanges with 63 vs 24 total strikes, 59 vs 22 significant strikes, 57.8% vs 26.5% accuracy. Jon Jones capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 420 | 1 796 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Jon Jones controlled Alexander Gustafsson on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:29 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 581 | 519 |
| Activity ELO | 1 253 | 1 522 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +7 |
Jon Jones demonstrated extended layoff with 519 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Jon Jones capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Gustafsson's 581-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 191 | 1 557 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +5 |
Jon Jones started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Gustafsson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Gustafsson | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 113 | 1 287 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.