October 5, 2024
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Austin Hubbard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 159 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Alexander Hernandez's 4-fight experience advantage (14 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexander Hernandez for the expected result. Had Austin Hubbard pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Austin Hubbard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Austin Hubbard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 200 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Alexander Hernandez receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Austin Hubbard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 79 | 63 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 204 | 191 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 91 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 109 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Alexander Hernandez controlled the striking exchanges with 91 vs 65 total strikes, 79 vs 63 significant strikes. Alexander Hernandez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Austin Hubbard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:40 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 101 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Alexander Hernandez did not secure a significant ground advantage against Austin Hubbard on the ground with 0:40 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Austin Hubbard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 163 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Alexander Hernandez demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alexander Hernandez capitalized on this activity level, while Austin Hubbard's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Austin Hubbard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 049 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Alexander Hernandez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Austin Hubbard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Austin Hubbard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

