Alexander Hernandez vs Austin Hubbard

October 5, 2024

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1103
(+18)
Alexander Hernandez
Winner: Alexander Hernandez
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Alexander Hernandez+18
Austin Hubbard-17
981
(-17)
Austin Hubbard

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +19Austin Hubbard: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezAustin Hubbard
Total UFC Fights1410
Experience Gap4-4
Experience ELO1 159978
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez's 4-fight experience advantage (14 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexander Hernandez for the expected result. Had Austin Hubbard pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +20Austin Hubbard: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezAustin Hubbard
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 020968
ELO Change+20-20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +5Austin Hubbard: -5

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezAustin Hubbard
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 200986
ELO Change+5-5
💡

What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Alexander Hernandez receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +22Austin Hubbard: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezAustin Hubbard
Significant Strikes Landed7963
Significant Strikes Attempted204191
Total Strikes Landed9165
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 109986
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez controlled the striking exchanges with 91 vs 65 total strikes, 79 vs 63 significant strikes. Alexander Hernandez capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +15Austin Hubbard: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezAustin Hubbard
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted212
Ground Control Time0:400:05
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 101960
ELO Change+15-15
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez did not secure a significant ground advantage against Austin Hubbard on the ground with 0:40 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +19Austin Hubbard: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezAustin Hubbard
Days Since Last Fight183162
Activity ELO1 1631 027
ELO Change+19-15
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alexander Hernandez capitalized on this activity level, while Austin Hubbard's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +21Austin Hubbard: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezAustin Hubbard
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 049978
ELO Change+21-19
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Austin Hubbard is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +20Austin Hubbard: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezAustin Hubbard
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 020968
ELO Change+20-20
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.