January 18, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 30 |
| Experience Gap | -27 | 27 |
| Experience ELO | 1 169 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Donald Cerrone's 27-fight experience advantage (30 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Donald Cerrone for the expected result. Had Alexander Hernandez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 038 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:43 | 3:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 234 | 1 526 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +35 |
Donald Cerrone gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 80 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 105 | 162 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 54 | 81 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 168 | 1 444 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Donald Cerrone controlled the striking exchanges with 81 vs 54 total strikes, 80 vs 49 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Donald Cerrone capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:22 | 0:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 191 | 1 405 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Donald Cerrone landed 1 knockdown followed by 14 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 091 | 1 501 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +12 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Hernandez's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 055 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +12 |
Donald Cerrone extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Hernandez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 038 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.