Alexander Hernandez vs Drew Dober

May 12, 2020

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1133
(-29)
Alexander Hernandez
Winner: Drew Dober
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 4:25

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Alexander Hernandez-29
Drew Dober+38
1204
(+38)
Drew Dober

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: -43Drew Dober: +43

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezDrew Dober
Total UFC Fights515
Experience Gap-1010
Experience ELO1 1991 154
ELO Change-43+43
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What Happened

Drew Dober's 10-fight experience advantage (15 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Drew Dober for the expected result. Had Alexander Hernandez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: -21Drew Dober: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezDrew Dober
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0441 091
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: -36Drew Dober: +74

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezDrew Dober
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish4:254:25
Win Type ELO1 2551 414
ELO Change-36+74
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What Happened

Drew Dober gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: -42Drew Dober: +42

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezDrew Dober
Significant Strikes Landed3461
Significant Strikes Attempted108145
Total Strikes Landed4165
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 1521 370
ELO Change-42+42
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What Happened

Drew Dober controlled the striking exchanges with 65 vs 41 total strikes, 61 vs 34 significant strikes, 42.1% vs 31.5% accuracy. Drew Dober capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: -24Drew Dober: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezDrew Dober
Takedowns Landed30
Takedowns Attempted50
Ground Control Time1:070:11
Ground Strikes Landed10
Ground ELO1 1921 187
ELO Change-24+24
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What Happened

Drew Dober did not secure a significant ground advantage against Alexander Hernandez on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: -20Drew Dober: +50

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezDrew Dober
Days Since Last Fight298116
Activity ELO1 1131 199
ELO Change-20+50
💡

What Happened

Drew Dober demonstrated solid activity levels with 116 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Drew Dober capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Hernandez's 298-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: -20Drew Dober: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezDrew Dober
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO1 0681 124
ELO Change-20+27
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What Happened

Drew Dober extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Hernandez is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: -21Drew Dober: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezDrew Dober
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0441 091
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.