May 12, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Drew Dober |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 199 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Drew Dober's 10-fight experience advantage (15 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Drew Dober for the expected result. Had Alexander Hernandez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Drew Dober |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Drew Dober |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:25 | 4:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 255 | 1 414 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +74 |
Drew Dober gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Drew Dober |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 61 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 108 | 145 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 152 | 1 370 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Drew Dober controlled the striking exchanges with 65 vs 41 total strikes, 61 vs 34 significant strikes, 42.1% vs 31.5% accuracy. Drew Dober capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Drew Dober |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:07 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 192 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Drew Dober did not secure a significant ground advantage against Alexander Hernandez on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Drew Dober |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 298 | 116 |
| Activity ELO | 1 113 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +50 |
Drew Dober demonstrated solid activity levels with 116 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Drew Dober capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Hernandez's 298-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Drew Dober |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 068 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +27 |
Drew Dober extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Hernandez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Drew Dober |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 044 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

