July 19, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 242 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -37 |
Alexander Hernandez overcame a 15-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 19 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Francisco Trinaldo.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 065 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 291 | 1 308 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Alexander Hernandez earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 52 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 194 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Francisco Trinaldo controlled the striking through superior accuracy (48.1% vs 27.5%). However, since Francisco Trinaldo lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alexander Hernandez's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 216 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 301 |
| Activity ELO | 1 133 | 1 301 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -34 |
Alexander Hernandez demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alexander Hernandez capitalized on this activity level, while Francisco Trinaldo's 301-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 088 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -30 |
Alexander Hernandez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Francisco Trinaldo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 065 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

