March 15, 2025
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 173 | 925 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Alexander Hernandez's 7-fight experience advantage (15 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexander Hernandez for the expected result. Had Kurt Holobaugh pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 218 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Alexander Hernandez earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 71 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 149 | 171 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 87 | 106 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 119 | 905 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
Kurt Holobaugh controlled the striking through superior volume (106 vs 87 total strikes), significant strike advantage (71 vs 59). However, since Kurt Holobaugh lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alexander Hernandez's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:39 | 0:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 140 | 836 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Alexander Hernandez dominated Kurt Holobaugh on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 6:39 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 239 |
| Activity ELO | 1 184 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -12 |
Alexander Hernandez demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alexander Hernandez capitalized on this activity level, while Kurt Holobaugh's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 068 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -16 |
Alexander Hernandez extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kurt Holobaugh is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 037 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

