Alexander Hernandez vs Kurt Holobaugh

March 15, 2025

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1122
(+19)
Alexander Hernandez
Winner: Alexander Hernandez
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Alexander Hernandez+19
Kurt Holobaugh-18
930
(-18)
Kurt Holobaugh

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +14Kurt Holobaugh: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh
Total UFC Fights158
Experience Gap7-7
Experience ELO1 173925
ELO Change+14-14
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez's 7-fight experience advantage (15 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexander Hernandez for the expected result. Had Kurt Holobaugh pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +17Kurt Holobaugh: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 037940
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +18Kurt Holobaugh: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 218959
ELO Change+18-18
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +10Kurt Holobaugh: -10

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh
Significant Strikes Landed5971
Significant Strikes Attempted149171
Total Strikes Landed87106
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 119905
ELO Change+10-10
💡

What Happened

Kurt Holobaugh controlled the striking through superior volume (106 vs 87 total strikes), significant strike advantage (71 vs 59). However, since Kurt Holobaugh lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alexander Hernandez's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +39Kurt Holobaugh: -39

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh
Takedowns Landed40
Takedowns Attempted50
Ground Control Time6:390:32
Ground Strikes Landed120
Ground ELO1 140836
ELO Change+39-39
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez dominated Kurt Holobaugh on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 6:39 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +21Kurt Holobaugh: -12

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh
Days Since Last Fight161239
Activity ELO1 184988
ELO Change+21-12
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alexander Hernandez capitalized on this activity level, while Kurt Holobaugh's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +19Kurt Holobaugh: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 068946
ELO Change+19-16
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kurt Holobaugh is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +17Kurt Holobaugh: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 037940
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.