October 1, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 196 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Alexander Hernandez's 7-fight experience advantage (8 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexander Hernandez for the expected result. Had Mike Breeden pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:20 | 1:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 294 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -16 |
Alexander Hernandez earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:20, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 35 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 258 | 944 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Alexander Hernandez controlled the striking exchanges with 20 vs 6 significant strikes, 57.1% vs 40.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Alexander Hernandez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 183 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 138 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Alexander Hernandez demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alexander Hernandez capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Breeden's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 083 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Alexander Hernandez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Breeden is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

