Alexander Hernandez vs Mike Breeden

October 1, 2021

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1159
(+24)
Alexander Hernandez
Winner: Alexander Hernandez
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 1:20

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Alexander Hernandez+24
Mike Breeden-21
979
(-21)
Mike Breeden

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +16Mike Breeden: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezMike Breeden
Total UFC Fights81
Experience Gap7-7
Experience ELO1 196984
ELO Change+16-16
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez's 7-fight experience advantage (8 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexander Hernandez for the expected result. Had Mike Breeden pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +19Mike Breeden: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezMike Breeden
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 059981
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +37Mike Breeden: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezMike Breeden
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish1:201:20
Win Type ELO1 294984
ELO Change+37-16
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:20, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +56Mike Breeden: -56

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezMike Breeden
Significant Strikes Landed206
Significant Strikes Attempted3515
Total Strikes Landed206
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 258944
ELO Change+56-56
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez controlled the striking exchanges with 20 vs 6 significant strikes, 57.1% vs 40.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Alexander Hernandez capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +11Mike Breeden: -11

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezMike Breeden
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted20
Ground Control Time0:000:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 183989
ELO Change+11-11
💡

What Happened

The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +17Mike Breeden: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezMike Breeden
Days Since Last Fight217N/A
Activity ELO1 138986
ELO Change+17-14
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alexander Hernandez capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Breeden's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +19Mike Breeden: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezMike Breeden
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 083983
ELO Change+19-17
💡

What Happened

Alexander Hernandez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Breeden is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Alexander Hernandez: +19Mike Breeden: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricAlexander HernandezMike Breeden
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 059981
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.