February 11, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 162 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Renato Moicano's 3-fight experience advantage (12 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Renato Moicano for the expected result. Had Alexander Hernandez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 038 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:23 | 1:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 244 | 1 302 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +78 |
Renato Moicano earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:23, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Alexander Hernandez was submitted.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 79 | 60 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 224 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Alexander Hernandez lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Renato Moicano's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 1:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 106 | 1 352 |
| ELO Change | -77 | +77 |
Renato Moicano dominated Alexander Hernandez on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:43 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 232 |
| Activity ELO | 1 117 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +27 |
Renato Moicano demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Renato Moicano capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Hernandez's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 063 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Renato Moicano extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Hernandez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 038 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.