February 26, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 180 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +42 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 257 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Thiago Moises earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 205 | 183 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 202 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Thiago Moises slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Thiago Moises capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 172 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 121 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +60 |
Thiago Moises demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Moises capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Hernandez's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 064 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +31 |
Thiago Moises extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Hernandez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Hernandez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.