April 16, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Munoz | Luis Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 949 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Luis Pena's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Luis Pena for the expected result. Had Alexander Munoz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Munoz | Luis Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 961 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Munoz | Luis Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 969 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +5 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Luis Pena receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Alexander Munoz | Luis Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 80 | 90 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 169 | 195 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 82 | 90 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 951 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Luis Pena edged the striking exchanges with 90 vs 80 significant strikes. Luis Pena capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Munoz | Luis Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:21 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 966 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Luis Pena did not secure a significant ground advantage against Alexander Munoz on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Munoz | Luis Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 252 | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 968 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Luis Pena demonstrated standard activity with 294 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Luis Pena capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Munoz's 252-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Munoz | Luis Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 963 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Luis Pena started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Munoz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Munoz | Luis Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 961 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

