February 10, 2023
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 499 | 1 487 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (13 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 421 | 1 373 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +92 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Islam Makhachev captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 644 | 1 706 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Islam Makhachev earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 70 | 57 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 143 | 95 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 164 | 95 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 682 | 1 592 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Alexander Volkanovski controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (164 vs 95 total strikes), significant strike advantage (70 vs 57), superior accuracy (49.0% vs 60.0%), 1 knockdown. However, since Alexander Volkanovski lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Islam Makhachev's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:55 | 7:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 583 | 1 750 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Islam Makhachev controlled Alexander Volkanovski on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 7:37 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 225 | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 1 441 | 1 460 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +63 |
Islam Makhachev demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Islam Makhachev capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Volkanovski's 225-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 12 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 668 | 1 773 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +204 |
Islam Makhachev extended his incredible 12-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Alexander Volkanovski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 227 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.