October 20, 2023
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 493 | 1 521 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +34 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (15 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 421 | 1 449 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +76 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Islam Makhachev captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:06 | 3:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 671 | 1 798 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +92 |
Islam Makhachev earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:06, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 6 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 555 | 1 765 |
| ELO Change | -173 | +173 |
Islam Makhachev controlled the striking exchanges with 39 vs 11 total strikes, 24 vs 4 significant strikes, 82.8% vs 66.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Islam Makhachev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:49 | 0:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 591 | 1 785 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Islam Makhachev landed 1 knockdown followed by 9 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 252 |
| Activity ELO | 1 458 | 1 488 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +28 |
Islam Makhachev demonstrated standard activity with 252 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Islam Makhachev capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Volkanovski's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 13 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 657 | 1 897 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +124 |
Islam Makhachev extended his incredible 13-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Alexander Volkanovski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 224 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.