October 5, 2018
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 242 | 1 286 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Derrick Lewis's 10-fight experience advantage (15 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derrick Lewis for the expected result. Had Alexander Volkov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 078 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:49 | 4:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 355 | 1 570 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +53 |
Derrick Lewis gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 121 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 171 | 70 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 133 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 324 | 1 522 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
Alexander Volkov controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (133 vs 40 total strikes), significant strike advantage (121 vs 39), superior accuracy (70.8% vs 55.7%). However, since Alexander Volkov lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Derrick Lewis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:46 | 0:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 1 176 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Derrick Lewis did not secure a significant ground advantage against Alexander Volkov on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:43 of control time, 17 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 91 |
| Activity ELO | 1 172 | 1 373 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +30 |
Derrick Lewis demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Derrick Lewis capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Volkov's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 110 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +21 |
Derrick Lewis extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Volkov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 075 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

