March 18, 2022
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 270 | 1 287 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +56 |
Tom Aspinall overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 12 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Alexander Volkov.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 095 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:45 | 3:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 484 | 1 451 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +106 |
Tom Aspinall earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 427 | 1 399 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Tom Aspinall controlled the striking exchanges with 35 vs 13 total strikes, 29 vs 13 significant strikes, 67.4% vs 56.5% accuracy. Tom Aspinall capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 122 | 1 380 |
| ELO Change | -169 | +169 |
Tom Aspinall dominated Alexander Volkov on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:54 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 274 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +36 |
Tom Aspinall demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tom Aspinall capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Volkov's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 137 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +46 |
Tom Aspinall continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Alexander Volkov's now at 0.
| Metric | Alexander Volkov | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 092 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

