October 3, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexander Yakovlev | Nicholas Musoke |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 959 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Nicholas Musoke's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nicholas Musoke for the expected result. Had Alexander Yakovlev pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexander Yakovlev | Nicholas Musoke |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 966 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexander Yakovlev | Nicholas Musoke |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 961 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Nicholas Musoke earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alexander Yakovlev | Nicholas Musoke |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 70 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 107 | 156 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 97 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 939 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Nicholas Musoke dominated the striking exchanges with 97 vs 44 total strikes, 70 vs 44 significant strikes. Nicholas Musoke capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexander Yakovlev | Nicholas Musoke |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:06 | 6:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 956 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Nicholas Musoke edged out Alexander Yakovlev on the ground with 6:47 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Yakovlev | Nicholas Musoke |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 977 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +43 |
Nicholas Musoke demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nicholas Musoke capitalized on this activity level, while Alexander Yakovlev's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexander Yakovlev | Nicholas Musoke |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 969 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +20 |
Nicholas Musoke started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexander Yakovlev is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexander Yakovlev | Nicholas Musoke |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 966 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.