November 2, 2024
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexandr Romanov | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 146 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Alexandr Romanov's 2-fight experience advantage (10 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexandr Romanov for the expected result. Had Rodrigo Nascimento pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexandr Romanov | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 074 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexandr Romanov | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 267 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Alexandr Romanov earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alexandr Romanov | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 92 | 91 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 87 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 184 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Alexandr Romanov controlled the striking exchanges with 87 vs 48 total strikes, 45 vs 31 significant strikes, 48.9% vs 34.1% accuracy. Alexandr Romanov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexandr Romanov | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:33 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 313 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Alexandr Romanov dominated Rodrigo Nascimento on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 7:33 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alexandr Romanov | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 223 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -15 |
Alexandr Romanov demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alexandr Romanov capitalized on this activity level, while Rodrigo Nascimento's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexandr Romanov | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 109 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Alexandr Romanov started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rodrigo Nascimento is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexandr Romanov | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 072 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

