August 20, 2021
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 165 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Alexandre Pantoja's 7-fight experience advantage (11 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexandre Pantoja for the expected result. Had Brandon Royval pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 091 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:46 | 1:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 289 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -24 |
Alexandre Pantoja earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:46, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Brandon Royval was submitted.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 61 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 218 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Alexandre Pantoja slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 22 vs 17 significant strikes, 55.0% vs 27.9% accuracy. Alexandre Pantoja capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:51 | 0:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 204 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +97 | -97 |
Alexandre Pantoja dominated Brandon Royval on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 2:51 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 196 | 273 |
| Activity ELO | 1 188 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Alexandre Pantoja demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alexandre Pantoja capitalized on this activity level, while Brandon Royval's 273-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 116 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Alexandre Pantoja extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brandon Royval is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 091 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

