December 15, 2023
UFC Flyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 269 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Alexandre Pantoja's 6-fight experience advantage (14 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexandre Pantoja for the expected result. Had Brandon Royval pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 241 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -14 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Alexandre Pantoja captured the UFC Flyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 414 | 1 255 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Alexandre Pantoja earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 95 | 111 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 156 | 204 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 126 | 281 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 341 | 1 293 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Brandon Royval controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (281 vs 126 total strikes), significant strike advantage (111 vs 95). However, since Brandon Royval lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alexandre Pantoja's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 15:51 | 0:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 1 407 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Alexandre Pantoja dominated Brandon Royval on the ground with 8 vs 0 takedowns, 15:51 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 246 |
| Activity ELO | 1 266 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -17 |
Alexandre Pantoja demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alexandre Pantoja capitalized on this activity level, while Brandon Royval's 246-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 207 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -16 |
Alexandre Pantoja continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Brandon Royval's now at 0.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 151 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.