January 19, 2018
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Dustin Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 035 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Dustin Ortiz's 9-fight experience advantage (12 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Ortiz for the expected result. Had Alexandre Pantoja pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Dustin Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Dustin Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 059 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Dustin Ortiz earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Dustin Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 49 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 92 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 065 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Dustin Ortiz controlled the striking exchanges with 92 vs 49 total strikes, 36 vs 19 significant strikes. Dustin Ortiz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Dustin Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 7 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:18 | 4:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 023 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
Dustin Ortiz controlled Alexandre Pantoja on the ground with 7 vs 1 takedowns, 4:50 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Dustin Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 046 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +27 |
Dustin Ortiz demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Ortiz capitalized on this activity level, while Alexandre Pantoja's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Dustin Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +26 |
Dustin Ortiz extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alexandre Pantoja is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Dustin Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.