December 7, 2024
UFC Flyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Asakura |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 15 | -15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 301 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
Alexandre Pantoja's 15-fight experience advantage (16 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexandre Pantoja for the expected result. Had Kai Asakura pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Asakura |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 296 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -7 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Alexandre Pantoja captured the UFC Flyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Asakura |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:05 | 2:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 442 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -6 |
Alexandre Pantoja earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:05, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kai Asakura was submitted.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Asakura |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 52 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 359 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
Alexandre Pantoja controlled the striking exchanges with 32 vs 17 significant strikes. Alexandre Pantoja capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Asakura |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:46 | 0:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 459 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Alexandre Pantoja dominated Kai Asakura on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 2:46 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Asakura |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 218 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 299 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -7 |
Alexandre Pantoja demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alexandre Pantoja capitalized on this activity level, while Kai Asakura's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Asakura |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 7 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 264 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -8 |
Alexandre Pantoja continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Kai Asakura's now at 0.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Asakura |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 179 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.