June 28, 2025
UFC Flyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Kara-France |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 320 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Alexandre Pantoja's 4-fight experience advantage (17 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexandre Pantoja for the expected result. Had Kai Kara-France pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Kara-France |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 324 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -9 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Alexandre Pantoja captured the UFC Flyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Kara-France |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:55 | 1:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 483 | 1 289 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -27 |
Alexandre Pantoja earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:55, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kai Kara-France was submitted.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Kara-France |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 76 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 380 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Alexandre Pantoja slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Alexandre Pantoja capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Kara-France |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:20 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 490 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Alexandre Pantoja dominated Kai Kara-France on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 7:20 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Kara-France |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 316 |
| Activity ELO | 1 316 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Alexandre Pantoja demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alexandre Pantoja capitalized on this activity level, while Kai Kara-France's 316-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Kara-France |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 8 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 304 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -12 |
Alexandre Pantoja continued building serious momentum with a 8-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Kai Kara-France's now at 0.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Kara-France |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 194 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.