May 3, 2024
UFC Flyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 291 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Alexandre Pantoja's 11-fight experience advantage (15 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alexandre Pantoja for the expected result. Had Steve Erceg pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 274 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -11 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Alexandre Pantoja captured the UFC Flyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 432 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Alexandre Pantoja earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 125 | 111 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 242 | 212 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 143 | 129 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 352 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
Alexandre Pantoja edged the striking exchanges with 125 vs 111 significant strikes. Alexandre Pantoja capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 9 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 19 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:15 | 0:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 15 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 446 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Alexandre Pantoja dominated Steve Erceg on the ground with 9 vs 1 takedowns, 8:15 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 63 |
| Activity ELO | 1 291 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -13 |
Alexandre Pantoja demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alexandre Pantoja capitalized on this activity level, while Steve Erceg's 63-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 6 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 239 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -13 |
Alexandre Pantoja continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Steve Erceg's now at 0.
| Metric | Alexandre Pantoja | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 167 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.