March 22, 2025
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alexia Thainara | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 090 | 909 |
| ELO Change | +90 | -90 |
Alexia Thainara overcame a 13-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Molly McCann.
| Metric | Alexia Thainara | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alexia Thainara | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:32 | 4:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 081 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +81 | -49 |
Alexia Thainara earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:32, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Alexia Thainara | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 21 | 21 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 029 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Alexia Thainara slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 52.4% vs 42.9% accuracy. Alexia Thainara capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alexia Thainara | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:24 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 062 | 902 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Alexia Thainara controlled Molly McCann on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:24 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alexia Thainara | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 239 |
| Activity ELO | 1 025 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Alexia Thainara demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since her last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Alexia Thainara capitalized on this activity level, while Molly McCann's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alexia Thainara | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 024 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Alexia Thainara started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Molly McCann is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alexia Thainara | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.