October 9, 2020
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ali AlQaisi | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 946 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Ali AlQaisi | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 957 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ali AlQaisi | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 942 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Tony Kelley earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ali AlQaisi | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 67 | 62 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 954 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Ali AlQaisi controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (29 vs 23). However, since Ali AlQaisi lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Tony Kelley's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ali AlQaisi | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 15 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:00 | 1:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 903 | 927 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Tony Kelley did not secure a significant ground advantage against Ali AlQaisi on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:56 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Ali AlQaisi | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 63 | 56 |
| Activity ELO | 957 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +105 |
Tony Kelley demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 56 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Tony Kelley capitalized on this activity level, while Ali AlQaisi's 63-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ali AlQaisi | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 957 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Tony Kelley started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ali AlQaisi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ali AlQaisi | Tony Kelley |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 957 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.