June 17, 2016
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Geane Herrera |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 108 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Ali Bagautinov's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ali Bagautinov for the expected result. Had Geane Herrera pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Geane Herrera |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 056 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Geane Herrera |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 164 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Ali Bagautinov earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Geane Herrera |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 90 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 124 | 25 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 128 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 171 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Ali Bagautinov dominated the striking exchanges with 128 vs 40 total strikes, 90 vs 13 significant strikes, 72.6% vs 52.0% accuracy. Ali Bagautinov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Geane Herrera |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:27 | 0:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 52 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 213 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Ali Bagautinov dominated Geane Herrera on the ground with 5 vs 1 takedowns, 8:27 of control time, 52 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Geane Herrera |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 146 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Ali Bagautinov demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ali Bagautinov capitalized on this activity level, while Geane Herrera's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Geane Herrera |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 065 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -19 |
Ali Bagautinov started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Geane Herrera is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Geane Herrera |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 049 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.