October 2, 2015
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 083 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Joseph Benavidez's 7-fight experience advantage (12 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joseph Benavidez for the expected result. Had Ali Bagautinov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 130 | 1 334 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Joseph Benavidez earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 121 | 146 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 119 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Joseph Benavidez controlled the striking exchanges with 48 vs 31 significant strikes. Joseph Benavidez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:19 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 147 | 1 318 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 476 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 127 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +32 |
Joseph Benavidez demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joseph Benavidez capitalized on this activity level, while Ali Bagautinov's 476-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 045 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +22 |
Joseph Benavidez extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ali Bagautinov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ali Bagautinov | Joseph Benavidez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 030 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.