September 4, 2020
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 14 | -14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 282 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Alistair Overeem's 14-fight experience advantage (19 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alistair Overeem for the expected result. Had Augusto Sakai pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 138 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 0:26 | 0:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 601 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -11 |
Alistair Overeem gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 5, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 92 | 99 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 114 | 173 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 106 | 120 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 403 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Augusto Sakai controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (99 vs 92), superior accuracy (57.2% vs 80.7%). However, since Augusto Sakai lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alistair Overeem's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:29 | 2:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 48 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 323 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -61 |
Alistair Overeem dominated Augusto Sakai on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 5:29 of control time, 48 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 322 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -12 |
Alistair Overeem demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alistair Overeem capitalized on this activity level, while Augusto Sakai's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 183 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -18 |
Alistair Overeem extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Augusto Sakai is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 125 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

