Alistair Overeem vs Augusto Sakai

September 4, 2020

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1297
(+28)
Alistair Overeem
Winner: Alistair Overeem
KO/TKO
Round 5 • 0:26

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Alistair Overeem+28
Augusto Sakai-24
1127
(-24)
Augusto Sakai

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Alistair Overeem: +29Augusto Sakai: -29

Performance Statistics

MetricAlistair OvereemAugusto Sakai
Total UFC Fights195
Experience Gap14-14
Experience ELO1 2821 191
ELO Change+29-29
💡

What Happened

Alistair Overeem's 14-fight experience advantage (19 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alistair Overeem for the expected result. Had Augusto Sakai pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Alistair Overeem: +19Augusto Sakai: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricAlistair OvereemAugusto Sakai
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1381 063
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Alistair Overeem: +21Augusto Sakai: -11

Performance Statistics

MetricAlistair OvereemAugusto Sakai
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round55
Time of Finish0:260:26
Win Type ELO1 6011 233
ELO Change+21-11
💡

What Happened

Alistair Overeem gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 5, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Alistair Overeem: +27Augusto Sakai: -27

Performance Statistics

MetricAlistair OvereemAugusto Sakai
Significant Strikes Landed9299
Significant Strikes Attempted114173
Total Strikes Landed106120
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 4031 165
ELO Change+27-27
💡

What Happened

Augusto Sakai controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (99 vs 92), superior accuracy (57.2% vs 80.7%). However, since Augusto Sakai lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alistair Overeem's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Alistair Overeem: +61Augusto Sakai: -61

Performance Statistics

MetricAlistair OvereemAugusto Sakai
Takedowns Landed30
Takedowns Attempted30
Ground Control Time5:292:22
Ground Strikes Landed482
Ground ELO1 3231 089
ELO Change+61-61
💡

What Happened

Alistair Overeem dominated Augusto Sakai on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 5:29 of control time, 48 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Alistair Overeem: +31Augusto Sakai: -12

Performance Statistics

MetricAlistair OvereemAugusto Sakai
Days Since Last Fight11298
Activity ELO1 3221 124
ELO Change+31-12
💡

What Happened

Alistair Overeem demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alistair Overeem capitalized on this activity level, while Augusto Sakai's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Alistair Overeem: +21Augusto Sakai: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricAlistair OvereemAugusto Sakai
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 1831 089
ELO Change+21-18
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What Happened

Alistair Overeem extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Augusto Sakai is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Alistair Overeem: +19Augusto Sakai: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricAlistair OvereemAugusto Sakai
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1251 061
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.