September 4, 2014
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 076 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Ben Rothwell's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ben Rothwell for the expected result. Had Alistair Overeem pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:19 | 2:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 131 | 1 301 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +80 |
Ben Rothwell earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:19, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 21 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 22 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 114 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | -101 | +101 |
Ben Rothwell controlled the striking exchanges with 63.0% vs 95.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Ben Rothwell capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 076 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Ben Rothwell landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 216 | 370 |
| Activity ELO | 1 027 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +19 |
Ben Rothwell demonstrated extended layoff with 370 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Ben Rothwell capitalized on this activity level, while Alistair Overeem's 216-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Ben Rothwell extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alistair Overeem is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 992 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

