July 7, 2017
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 321 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -29 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (12 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 139 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 631 | 1 584 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Alistair Overeem earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 38 | 115 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 107 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 564 | 1 470 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Fabricio Werdum controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (107 vs 29 total strikes), significant strike advantage (49 vs 21), superior accuracy (42.6% vs 55.3%), 1 knockdown. However, since Fabricio Werdum lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alistair Overeem's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:20 | 2:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 318 | 1 369 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Alistair Overeem did not secure a significant ground advantage against Fabricio Werdum on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:20 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 301 |
| Activity ELO | 1 302 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -20 |
Alistair Overeem demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alistair Overeem capitalized on this activity level, while Fabricio Werdum's 301-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 182 | 1 208 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -26 |
Alistair Overeem extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Fabricio Werdum is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 122 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.