March 13, 2015
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 173 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -28 |
Alistair Overeem overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Roy Nelson.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 046 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 320 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Alistair Overeem earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 62 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 84 | 77 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 273 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Alistair Overeem controlled the striking exchanges with 62 vs 23 total strikes, 62 vs 23 significant strikes, 73.8% vs 29.9% accuracy. Alistair Overeem capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 192 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Alistair Overeem controlled Roy Nelson on the ground with 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 168 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -23 |
Alistair Overeem demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alistair Overeem capitalized on this activity level, while Roy Nelson's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 059 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -23 |
Alistair Overeem extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roy Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alistair Overeem | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.