May 28, 2016
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Bryan Caraway |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 107 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Bryan Caraway's 3-fight experience advantage (8 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Bryan Caraway for the expected result. Had Aljamain Sterling pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Bryan Caraway |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 062 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Bryan Caraway |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 237 | 1 246 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Bryan Caraway receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Bryan Caraway |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 64 | 31 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 56 | 69 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 219 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Aljamain Sterling controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (32 vs 9), superior accuracy (50.0% vs 29.0%). However, since Aljamain Sterling lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Bryan Caraway's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Bryan Caraway |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:51 | 6:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 265 | 1 335 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Bryan Caraway edged out Aljamain Sterling on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 6:35 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Bryan Caraway |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 171 | 309 |
| Activity ELO | 1 097 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Bryan Caraway demonstrated standard activity with 309 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Bryan Caraway capitalized on this activity level, while Aljamain Sterling's 171-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Bryan Caraway |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 084 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +27 |
Bryan Caraway extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aljamain Sterling is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Bryan Caraway |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 062 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.