January 27, 2017
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 080 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Raphael Assuncao's 4-fight experience advantage (10 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Raphael Assuncao for the expected result. Had Aljamain Sterling pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 227 | 1 266 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Raphael Assuncao receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 52 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 172 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 201 | 1 288 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Aljamain Sterling controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (52 vs 39). However, since Aljamain Sterling lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Raphael Assuncao's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 246 | 1 316 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 245 | 204 |
| Activity ELO | 1 081 | 1 208 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Raphael Assuncao demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Raphael Assuncao capitalized on this activity level, while Aljamain Sterling's 245-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 069 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +17 |
Raphael Assuncao started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aljamain Sterling is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aljamain Sterling | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

